Polymarket Prediction: Will inflation be 0.4% or more from April to May? – Karlstack


The specific prediction market I will be forecasting is linked here; at the time of this writing, one share of “Yes” is currently trading at 70 cents, meaning the crowdsourced prediction from those with skin in the game (shoutout to NNT!) is pricing in a 70% chance that headline inflation from April to May will rise by more than 0.4%. If you wager $70 today on “Yes”, you stand to win $100, for a tidy 43% return.

Urbanisation and the Onset of Modern Economic Growth | The Economic Journal | Oxford Academic

A large literature characterizes urbanisation as resulting from productivity growth attracting rural workers to cities. Incorporating economic geography elements into a growth model, we suggest that causation runs the other way: when rural workers move to cities, the resulting urbanisation produces technological change and productivity growth. Urban density leads to knowledge exchange and innovation, thus creating a positive feedback loop between city size and productivity that initiates sustained economic growth.

This jives with the Steven Johnson book that says how much more innovatition increases in big cities. People together is a powerful thing.