UFO follow up

A follow up discussion to the UFO post.

The interesting part is that as I wrote in my post – there is something here. Not little green men, but a bigger issue. Something is causing these things and we don’t know what they are.

Tyler Cowen also thinks we should take this seriously and writes about how markets might react.

Now that the Pentagon takes UFOs seriously, it’s perhaps appropriate to consider some more mundane aspects of the phenomenon — namely, what it means for markets. UFO data will probably remain murky and unresolved, but if UFOs of alien origin become somewhat more likely (starting, to be clear, from a low base rate), which prices will change?


Ezra Kleins take is also good.

One immediate effect, I suspect, would be a collapse in public trust. Decades of U.F.O. reports and conspiracies would take on a different cast. Governments would be seen as having withheld a profound truth from the public, whether or not they actually did. We already live in an age of conspiracy theories. Now the guardrails would truly shatter, because if U.F.O.s were real, despite decades of dismissals, who would remain trusted to say anything else was false? Certainly not the academics who’d laughed them off as nonsense, or the governments who would now be seen as liars.

This week in podcasts #3

Longfrom – Katherine Eban

https://overcast.fm/+eRLKwnWQI

Kathrine has written about the Lab-leak story for Vanity Fair. The starting line is:

Throughout 2020, the notion that the novel coronavirus leaked from a lab was off-limits. Those who dared to push for transparency say toxic politics and hidden agendas kept us in the dark.

The episode is interesting since Evan also tried to write this story, so he asks great questions.


We Study Billionaires – The Psychology of Money w/ Morgan Housel

https://overcast.fm/+I6zGudiQE

Worst name for a podcast, lets just get that out there. They have interesting guest though.

I read Morgans book and found it to be good. Its always great to use podcast interviews as a spaced repetition learning tool. A nice and easy way to refresh your knowledge on a book or a subject. The interview covers more than the book and I found it interesting.

One thing they talk about here and in the book which I was unaware of is that Benjamin Graham said that his book, The Intelligent Investor, had formulas that was out of date. Obviously the main philosophy of the book stands and its still required reading, but could use an update. Morgan also wrote about it here, worth a look.


The Knowledge Project – Matt Ridley: Infinite Innovation

https://overcast.fm/+OxeaLXDpI

Kinda the same as the one above. Loved the book from Matt Ridley on innovation. This convorsation goes over some of the book but also breaks new ground.


The TED Interview – The end of our 50-year stagnation, Tyler Cowen

https://overcast.fm/+OySfwDdaY

Tay Tay talks to Chris about whats stirring in the world. How the Covid-19 vaccines is on par with the moon landing and other monumental achievements. I have to agree, as he wrote in October 2020:

[…]experts were saying that a Covid-19 vaccine would take four years or more. [..]Vaccine production has been turned upside down forever, induced by a crisis. It’s not obvious now, but later observers will look back on today as a time when biomedical progress was remarkably rapid.

Tyler for Bloomberg

Right now, June 21, the industrialized world is well underway in the vaccine programs. There is an end in sight. Imagine if the vaccines took the reported 4-5 years. We would have 3-4 years left of lockdowns, how many would die and suffer? It’s truly astonishing.


Good reads of the week #1

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/your-book-review-the-wizard-and-the

Scott writes about a book I’ve been thinking about reading for a long time. Ditto for the other Charles Mann books, 1491 and 1493.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-05-13/spac-king-chamath-palihapitiya-hopes-his-hype-will-keep-mesmerizing-you

Critical of The Dictator, perhaps too much in hit piece territory. It does give an insight that other articles have not given.


https://www.wired.com/story/vastaamo-psychotherapy-patients-hack-data-breach/

Details the story of an Finnish psychiatry startup that was hacked and the customers who have told their therapist all their secrets have been contacted by the hackers. There will be more of these in the future, so better read up. As Kevin Kelly has said, privacy, as we know it today, is changing, for good and bad.


https://aeon.co/essays/works-of-art-compel-our-attention-but-can-they-change-us

Suppose you’ve been gazing intensely at Rembrandt’s Self-Portrait (1659), which hangs in the National Gallery of Art in Washington, DC, and later you’re told that this was actually a painting made by a deep-learning machine that had internalized Rembrandt’s style through exposure to his paintings. You immediately feel that something’s lost. The museum would certainly take the work off its walls. What’s the thing that’s lost?

Also a good read for understanding the value of originals and ownership – NFTs are coming.


https://residentcontrarian.substack.com/p/on-incels-dead-bedrooms-and-the-hard/

Incels are going to become a larger problem in the next 5 years.


https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-new-yorker-interview/john-swartzwelder-sage-of-the-simpsons

[…]The lesson to me was clear: comedy writing was the way to go. Easiest job on the planet.
Do you still consider comedy writing to be the easiest job on the planet?
No, sir. I do not.