Polymarket Prediction: Will inflation be 0.4% or more from April to May? – Karlstack

https://karlstack.substack.com/p/polymarket-prediction-will-inflation

The specific prediction market I will be forecasting is linked here; at the time of this writing, one share of “Yes” is currently trading at 70 cents, meaning the crowdsourced prediction from those with skin in the game (shoutout to NNT!) is pricing in a 70% chance that headline inflation from April to May will rise by more than 0.4%. If you wager $70 today on “Yes”, you stand to win $100, for a tidy 43% return.